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Forecasting the size, peak and fading out of novel coronavirus outbreak using current confirmed cases and deaths
AFETP Technical Advisor
Afghanistan Field Epidemiology Training Program, Afghanistan National Public Health Institute, Ministry of Public Heal... moreForecasting the size, peak and fading out of novel coronavirus outbreak using current confirmed cases and deaths
AFETP Technical Advisor
Afghanistan Field Epidemiology Training Program, Afghanistan National Public Health Institute, Ministry of Public Health, Kabul, Afghanistan. February 07, 2020
Abstract
Background:
In the middle of December 2019, an atypical cluster of pneumonia cases with unknown etiology was reported from Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. Later on, at 31st December 2019, the outbreak of novel coronavirus was reported to World Health Organization (WHO). Finally, on 7th of January 2020, the Chinese authorities isolated a new type of coronavirus (novel coronavirus, nCoV), which was then named 2019nCoV by WHO on 12th January. WHO announced the event as public health emergency of international concern on January 31.
Methods:
Since report of novel coronavirus outbreak to WHO in 31 December 2019, the real time data on confirmed cases and deaths has been published worldwide. Using these data enabled many scientists and epidemiologists to nowcast, forecast and predict the future of current 2019 nCoV outbreak. In this study the number of confirmed cases and deaths published daily by National Health Commission (NHC) of China and World Health Organization (WHO) have been used to design a statistic model to forecast the number of cases daily with number of deaths attached to that. Comparing daily confirmed cases, the progress is estimated and future cases forecasted. In addition, the number of deaths was calculated, similarly with respect to the number of forecasted cases. The Microsoft Excel 2016 were used for data management and analysis.
Results:
The statistical model indicated that the current outbreak of novel coronavirus will be peaked on 20 February 2020 with 91265 confirmed cases and 1655 deaths worldwide. Later on, the number of cases and deaths will decline towards end of March 2020. It will be died out by first week of April, 2020. The comparison of actual cases and deaths as with forecasted cases and deaths are close to each other for last couple of days.
Conclusion:
There are many mathematic models developed and used to forecast the peak and size of outbreaks. The models including current one will be affected by integrated measures, level of interventions, population mobility, contact of people and transmission of virus. This model could be followed until end of outbreak to see its effectiveness. If working, could be used for forecasting of future outbreaks.
Keywords:
Outbreak, Novel Coronavirus, Forecasting, Modeling, Peak of outbreak less
Forecasting the peak and fading out of novel coronavirus of 2019.pdf
